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Entry #644: pick published

Hash verified

Mito Hollyhock v Urawa: Away win 45% @ 2.05 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T06:41:04.866640+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c95c0cfea30254515dfc3730d0b26025366b989757ee9fb8daa944701816f542
Stored hash: 335aad404c5018874e757975a87ce7f5926b2309025cc8e4b629232e15499916
Recomputed: 335aad404c5018874e757975a87ce7f5926b2309025cc8e4b629232e15499916

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Urawa",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.018,
  "explanation": "Away win: 45% against a market price of 46% (-1.8%).\nExpected goals Mito Hollyhock 1.30 – 1.42 Urawa.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nMito Hollyhock's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nMito Hollyhock's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nRest days (Mito Hollyhock 6, Urawa 7) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.8%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Referee assigned: Takafumi Mikuriya; Confirmed lineups released: Urawa 4-3-3, Mito Hollyhock 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Draw 28% → 27% (-0.9 pts); Away win 43% → 45% (+1.3 pts).",
  "fixture": 1556096,
  "home": "Mito Hollyhock",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T07:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4639,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.05",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4459,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.8%)",
  "trigger": "event: referee, lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Referee assigned: Takafumi Mikuriya; Confirmed lineups released: Urawa 4-3-3, Mito Hollyhock 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Draw 28% → 27% (-0.9 pts); Away win 43% → 45% (+1.3 pts)."
}

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