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Entry #852: pick published

Hash verified

Avai v Athletic Club: Home win 45% @ 2.15 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:49.200855+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 49faf58ab9709656042d9c241c9c85f778e535f9a8d448bc2fd242b8c1c3bddd
Stored hash: e709280e4e6dec6ec1344e756cf29c8911b5a722f5795ce424f0ef4b7e8fb7e8
Recomputed: e709280e4e6dec6ec1344e756cf29c8911b5a722f5795ce424f0ef4b7e8fb7e8

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Athletic Club",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0103,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 44% (+1.0%).\nExpected goals Avai 1.37 – 0.96 Athletic Club.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) adds 3.8 pts to home win.\nAthletic Club's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nRest days (Avai 7, Athletic Club 5) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.0%).",
  "fixture": 1520930,
  "home": "Avai",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 72,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4364,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-72-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.15",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4467,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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