Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #851: pick published

Hash verified

Águilas Doradas v Deportes Tolima: Home win 35% @ 2.79 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:46.281534+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 1bf3c18ec2f2df9e06fb1ce15df2b151c53fc0d8e79deeb21b9ff686a2d2b492
Stored hash: 49faf58ab9709656042d9c241c9c85f778e535f9a8d448bc2fd242b8c1c3bddd
Recomputed: 49faf58ab9709656042d9c241c9c85f778e535f9a8d448bc2fd242b8c1c3bddd

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Deportes Tolima",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0165,
  "explanation": "Home win: 35% against a market price of 33% (+1.7%).\nExpected goals Águilas Doradas 1.10 – 0.99 Deportes Tolima.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 46% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+42% goals at home) adds 4.7 pts to home win.\nDeportes Tolima's defence (0.86× the league rate against) takes 2.4 pts from home win.\nDeportes Tolima's attack (1.07× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nRest days (Águilas Doradas 5, Deportes Tolima 7) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.7%).",
  "fixture": 1549823,
  "home": "Águilas Doradas",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera A",
  "league_api_id": 239,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3332,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-239-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.79",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3497,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#850 #852

Latest entries

1413 in total