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Entry #850: pick published

Hash verified

São Bernardo v Criciuma: Home win 35% @ 2.99 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:44.298687+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b151b5776b081261e19da5cf286c8e8d9f021122e251b9304fe9d55caf7a2045
Stored hash: 1bf3c18ec2f2df9e06fb1ce15df2b151c53fc0d8e79deeb21b9ff686a2d2b492
Recomputed: 1bf3c18ec2f2df9e06fb1ce15df2b151c53fc0d8e79deeb21b9ff686a2d2b492

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Criciuma",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0379,
  "explanation": "Home win: 35% against a market price of 31% (+3.8%).\nExpected goals São Bernardo 1.27 – 0.88 Criciuma.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±7.6%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) adds 2.8 pts to home win.\nCriciuma's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nSão Bernardo's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (São Bernardo 7, Criciuma 6) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.8% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1520937,
  "home": "São Bernardo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 72,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3078,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-72-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.99",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3457,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.8% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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