Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #849: pick published

Hash verified

Real Madrid v Sevilla: Home win 77% @ 1.24 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:41.299690+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: a4a344098b89d3cfefca3059fd4b574925d7d9679946bd1c7628d189d6d03880
Stored hash: b151b5776b081261e19da5cf286c8e8d9f021122e251b9304fe9d55caf7a2045
Recomputed: b151b5776b081261e19da5cf286c8e8d9f021122e251b9304fe9d55caf7a2045

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Sevilla",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0195,
  "explanation": "Home win: 77% against a market price of 79% (-2.0%).\nExpected goals Real Madrid 2.30 – 0.87 Sevilla.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 69% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nReal Madrid's attack (1.50× the league rate) adds 3.7 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+35% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nReal Madrid's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nSevilla's defence (1.04× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.0%).",
  "fixture": 1570420,
  "home": "Real Madrid",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "La Liga",
  "league_api_id": 140,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7861,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.24",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7665,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#848 #850

Latest entries

1417 in total