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Entry #848: pick published

Hash verified

CRB v Botafogo SP: Away win 20% @ 5.30 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:38.815890+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 87c26eac983685007e3d907103618f0014b65a4cfd958738423b57f8683c51af
Stored hash: a4a344098b89d3cfefca3059fd4b574925d7d9679946bd1c7628d189d6d03880
Recomputed: a4a344098b89d3cfefca3059fd4b574925d7d9679946bd1c7628d189d6d03880

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Botafogo SP",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0322,
  "explanation": "Away win: 20% against a market price of 16% (+3.2%).\nExpected goals CRB 1.49 – 0.93 Botafogo SP.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 24% (uncertainty ±4.3%), so it carries 45% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) takes 3.3 pts from away win.\nCRB's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nCRB's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nBotafogo SP's defence (1.06× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1520932,
  "home": "CRB",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 72,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1646,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-72-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "5.30",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.1968,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#847 #849

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