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Entry #847: pick published

Hash verified

Gremio v Cruzeiro: Home win 38% @ 2.86 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:36.568212+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 52a1cc504105b11d59c898fdad4620970ed28bc163b4b41cc2ac09869e080273
Stored hash: 87c26eac983685007e3d907103618f0014b65a4cfd958738423b57f8683c51af
Recomputed: 87c26eac983685007e3d907103618f0014b65a4cfd958738423b57f8683c51af

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Cruzeiro",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0456,
  "explanation": "Home win: 38% against a market price of 33% (+4.6%).\nExpected goals Gremio 1.43 – 1.11 Cruzeiro.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±5.5%), so it carries 44% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) adds 5.2 pts to home win.\nRest days (Gremio 7, Cruzeiro 6) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nCruzeiro's defence (0.93× the league rate against) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nGremio's attack (0.95× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1492416,
  "home": "Gremio",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 71,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3295,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-71-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.86",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3751,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#846 #848

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