Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #846: pick published

Hash verified

San Martin Formosa v Olimpo Bahia Blanca: Home win 47% @ 1.98 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:32.918695+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: dfb32da5d50457b879f01c63c108cc05efa49e83ac49ec83ea1faf26e14854fe
Stored hash: 52a1cc504105b11d59c898fdad4620970ed28bc163b4b41cc2ac09869e080273
Recomputed: 52a1cc504105b11d59c898fdad4620970ed28bc163b4b41cc2ac09869e080273

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Olimpo Bahia Blanca",
  "bookmakers": 2,
  "edge": 0.0069,
  "explanation": "Home win: 47% against a market price of 46% (+0.7%).\nExpected goals San Martin Formosa 1.30 – 0.75 Olimpo Bahia Blanca.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+74% goals at home) adds 4.7 pts to home win.\nOlimpo Bahia Blanca's defence (0.78× the league rate against) takes 2.5 pts from home win.\nSan Martin Formosa's attack (1.20× the league rate) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nRest days (San Martin Formosa 7, Olimpo Bahia Blanca 7) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.7%).",
  "fixture": 1644459,
  "home": "San Martin Formosa",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Torneo Federal A",
  "league_api_id": 134,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4647,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-134-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.98",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4716,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#845 #847

Latest entries

1501 in total