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Entry #845: pick published

Hash verified

Alvarado v Cipolletti: Home win 50% @ 1.87 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:31.628881+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2b43f812926475e3501312eafa6ffb4d564cc439b2b29bfcb30c90a7285f815a
Stored hash: dfb32da5d50457b879f01c63c108cc05efa49e83ac49ec83ea1faf26e14854fe
Recomputed: dfb32da5d50457b879f01c63c108cc05efa49e83ac49ec83ea1faf26e14854fe

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Cipolletti",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0002,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 50% (+0.0%).\nExpected goals Alvarado 1.19 – 0.60 Cipolletti.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+74% goals at home) adds 4.8 pts to home win.\nAlvarado's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nCipolletti's defence (0.90× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nAlvarado's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1644458,
  "home": "Alvarado",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Torneo Federal A",
  "league_api_id": 134,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4953,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-134-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.87",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4955,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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