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Entry #844: pick published

Hash verified

FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua: Home win 55% @ 1.67 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:29.892942+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 62c2a050dba9cd5921628b604fea15fc55cd33e21ea5f7913b2e2fc57fc8d0a0
Stored hash: 2b43f812926475e3501312eafa6ffb4d564cc439b2b29bfcb30c90a7285f815a
Recomputed: 2b43f812926475e3501312eafa6ffb4d564cc439b2b29bfcb30c90a7285f815a

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "UCV Moquegua",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0136,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 57% (-1.4%).\nExpected goals FC Cajamarca 1.86 – 1.22 UCV Moquegua.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±8.2%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+54% goals at home) adds 4.6 pts to home win.\nFC Cajamarca's defence (1.18× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nUCV Moquegua's attack (0.85× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nUCV Moquegua's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.4%).",
  "fixture": 1549513,
  "home": "FC Cajamarca",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 281,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5663,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-281-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.67",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5527,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#843 #845

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