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Entry #843: pick published

Hash verified

NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard: Home win 58% @ 1.64 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:27.838651+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 892e16ec651c9bcfd70869ba7d46e1518911b1e7375a4042ebdd83a7a9421e8d
Stored hash: 62c2a050dba9cd5921628b604fea15fc55cd33e21ea5f7913b2e2fc57fc8d0a0
Recomputed: 62c2a050dba9cd5921628b604fea15fc55cd33e21ea5f7913b2e2fc57fc8d0a0

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Fortuna Sittard",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0071,
  "explanation": "Home win: 58% against a market price of 59% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals NEC Nijmegen 1.96 – 1.16 Fortuna Sittard.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nNEC Nijmegen's attack (1.22× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nFortuna Sittard's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nRest days (NEC Nijmegen 3, Fortuna Sittard 8) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).",
  "fixture": 1552191,
  "home": "NEC Nijmegen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eredivisie",
  "league_api_id": 88,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5851,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-88-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.64",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.578,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#842 #844

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