Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #842: pick published

Hash verified

Twente v Utrecht: Away win 15% @ 7.47 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:24.901587+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 16bca491c8eac6da02e4eab8d9c7a3936d42ed6947403a0e40c23d1496c38865
Stored hash: 892e16ec651c9bcfd70869ba7d46e1518911b1e7375a4042ebdd83a7a9421e8d
Recomputed: 892e16ec651c9bcfd70869ba7d46e1518911b1e7375a4042ebdd83a7a9421e8d

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Utrecht",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0341,
  "explanation": "Away win: 15% against a market price of 12% (+3.4%).\nExpected goals Twente 1.80 – 1.25 Utrecht.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 26% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nTwente's attack (1.17× the league rate) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nTwente's defence (0.88× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nUtrecht's attack (1.12× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1552196,
  "home": "Twente",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eredivisie",
  "league_api_id": 88,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1169,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-88-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "7.47",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.151,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#841 #843

Latest entries

1514 in total