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Entry #841: pick published

Hash verified

Al-Fateh v Al Khaleej Saihat: Home win 40% @ 2.26 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:22.021988+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f34c19069197ebd05b40fe31bb8322ff3752db88ebadc9277da197ddf2fb0592
Stored hash: 16bca491c8eac6da02e4eab8d9c7a3936d42ed6947403a0e40c23d1496c38865
Recomputed: 16bca491c8eac6da02e4eab8d9c7a3936d42ed6947403a0e40c23d1496c38865

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0087,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 41% (-0.9%).\nExpected goals Al-Fateh 1.40 – 1.29 Al Khaleej Saihat.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl-Fateh's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+11% goals at home) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nAl Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nAl-Fateh's defence (1.08× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.9%).",
  "fixture": 1603056,
  "home": "Al-Fateh",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 307,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4094,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-307-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.26",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4006,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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