Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #840: pick published

Hash verified

Baltika v FC Rostov: Home win 46% @ 2.14 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:19.786900+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 17b9373295d79ac1b02782f1352c08d6fbb91a9a4a8dd504fb6432681263b426
Stored hash: f34c19069197ebd05b40fe31bb8322ff3752db88ebadc9277da197ddf2fb0592
Recomputed: f34c19069197ebd05b40fe31bb8322ff3752db88ebadc9277da197ddf2fb0592

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC Rostov",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0066,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 46% (+0.7%).\nExpected goals Baltika 1.34 – 0.79 FC Rostov.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nBaltika's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nFC Rostov's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Baltika 4, FC Rostov 4) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.7%).",
  "fixture": 1561411,
  "home": "Baltika",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4554,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.14",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4621,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#839 #841

Latest entries

1514 in total