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Entry #839: pick published

Hash verified

Danubio v Central Espanol: Home win 45% @ 1.94 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:18.388076+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: aa9b0aa00ef00852e5b30fcbff078eec5e2ba053242bd5917c95b8a5d63d1ac6
Stored hash: 17b9373295d79ac1b02782f1352c08d6fbb91a9a4a8dd504fb6432681263b426
Recomputed: 17b9373295d79ac1b02782f1352c08d6fbb91a9a4a8dd504fb6432681263b426

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Central Espanol",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0289,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 48% (-2.9%).\nExpected goals Danubio 1.02 – 0.82 Central Espanol.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nDanubio's attack (0.86× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nCentral Espanol's attack (0.91× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nCentral Espanol's defence (1.04× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.9%).",
  "fixture": 1644703,
  "home": "Danubio",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 268,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4804,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-268-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.94",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4515,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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