Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar prediction

23:10

Sun 1 Nov, 23:10 Estadio Atanasio Girardot

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 75%Books 77% Best odds 1.27 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

60%

Bookmakers 64%

Draw

24%

Bookmakers 22%

Away win

16%

Bookmakers 14%

Us 60%Bookmakers 64% Odds too short Uncertainty ±2.4%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: no profit at the best price (-8.8% expected per unit).

Home win: 60% against a market price of 64% (-3.8%).

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Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar preview

Independiente Medellin host Alianza Valledupar in the Primera A on Sunday 1 November at 23:10 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Our model gives Independiente Medellin 60%, the draw 24% and Alianza Valledupar 16%; the bookmakers' prices said 64%, 22% and 14%.

Independiente Medellin have 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 (4 scored, 9 conceded).

Alianza Valledupar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 (5 scored, 6 conceded).

In their last 5 meetings Independiente Medellin won 2, Alianza Valledupar won 1 and 2 were drawn, with 1.8 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 75%.

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