Newport County vs Chesterfield prediction

19:45

Fri 30 Oct, 19:45 Rodney Parade

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 76%Books 77% Best odds 1.26 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

30%

Bookmakers 26%

Draw

27%

Bookmakers 26%

Away win

43%

Bookmakers 47%

Us 43%Bookmakers 47% Odds too short Uncertainty ±2.4%

Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 43% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

Away win: 43% against a market price of 47% (-4.0%).

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Newport County vs Chesterfield preview

Newport County host Chesterfield in the League Two on Friday 30 October at 19:45 at Rodney Parade.

Our model gives Newport County 30%, the draw 27% and Chesterfield 43%; the bookmakers' prices said 26%, 26% and 47%.

Newport County have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (6 scored, 6 conceded).

Chesterfield have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (12 scored, 7 conceded).

In their last 4 meetings Newport County won 1, Chesterfield won 3 and 0 were drawn, with 3.5 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 76%.

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Newport County

LDDWD

24 Oct · A v Cheltenham 0–1 (xG 1.38–1.38)
20 Oct · A v Rotherham 2–2 (xG 1.92–1.44)
17 Oct · H v York 1–1 (xG 1.04–1.09)
10 Oct · H v Colchester 1–0 (xG 1.64–0.73)
6 Oct · H v Plymouth 2–2

Chesterfield

WDLDW

24 Oct · H v Crewe 5–1 (xG 1.87–0.49)
20 Oct · H v Colchester 1–1 (xG 2.23–0.72)
17 Oct · A v Port Vale 0–1 (xG 0.28–0.61)
10 Oct · A v Crawley Town 2–2 (xG 2.05–2.20)
3 Oct · H v Tranmere 4–2 (xG 3.89–0.53)

Head-to-head

Newport County 1 · draws 0 · Chesterfield 3, 3.5 goals a game

24 Jan 2026 · Newport County 2–1 Chesterfield (League Two)
27 Sep 2025 · Chesterfield 4–1 Newport County (League Two)
8 Mar 2025 · Chesterfield 2–1 Newport County (League Two)
18 Oct 2024 · Newport County 0–3 Chesterfield (League Two)