Villarreal vs Espanyol prediction
Fri 30 Oct, 20:00
Estadio de la Ceramica
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 83%Books 84% Best odds 1.17 (Bet365)
Most likely: Home win
Home win
65%
Bookmakers 66%
Draw
20%
Bookmakers 19%
Away win
15%
Bookmakers 14%
Us 65%Bookmakers 66%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±2.1%
Most likely home win, and the bookmakers agree: no edge on the price, but a likely leg for a slip.
- Home win: 65% against a market price of 66% (-1.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Villarreal vs Espanyol preview
Villarreal host Espanyol in the La Liga on Friday 30 October at 20:00 at Estadio de la Ceramica.
Our model gives Villarreal 65%, the draw 20% and Espanyol 15%; the bookmakers' prices said 66%, 19% and 14%.
Villarreal have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 (8 scored, 7 conceded).
Espanyol have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 (4 scored, 9 conceded).
In their last 4 meetings Villarreal won 4, Espanyol won 0 and 0 were drawn, with 2.8 goals a game.
Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 83%.
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsVillarreal
WLDWL
- 24 Oct · A v Valencia 2–1 (xG 1.52–1.17)
- 20 Oct · A v Liverpool 3–4 (xG 1.59–2.41)
- 17 Oct · H v Elche 0–0 (xG 2.23–0.31)
- 13 Oct · H v Napoli 3–1 (xG 1.24–1.70)
- 10 Oct · A v Real Madrid 0–1 (xG 0.59–1.43)
Espanyol
LLDLL
- 24 Oct · A v Racing Santander 1–2 (xG 0.62–2.50)
- 17 Oct · H v Atletico Madrid 0–1 (xG 0.61–1.41)
- 9 Oct · A v Malaga 1–1 (xG 1.08–0.69)
- 18 Sep · H v Elche 1–3 (xG 1.05–1.61)
- 15 Sep · A v Rayo Vallecano 1–2 (xG 1.49–1.52)
Head-to-head
Villarreal 4 · draws 0 · Espanyol 0, 2.8 goals a game
- 9 Feb 2026 · Villarreal 4–1 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 8 Nov 2025 · Espanyol 0–2 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 27 Apr 2025 · Villarreal 1–0 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 26 Sep 2024 · Espanyol 1–2 Villarreal (La Liga)