SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
Fri 30 Oct, 19:30
Waldstadion Kaiserlinde
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 86%Books 85% Best odds 1.16 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
34%
Bookmakers 30%
Draw
24%
Bookmakers 24%
Away win
42%
Bookmakers 46%
Us 42%Bookmakers 46%
Odds too short
Uncertainty ±5.6%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 42% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Away win: 42% against a market price of 46% (-3.8%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 preview
SV Elversberg host FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga on Friday 30 October at 19:30 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
Our model gives SV Elversberg 34%, the draw 24% and FSV Mainz 05 42%; the bookmakers' prices said 30%, 24% and 46%.
SV Elversberg have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 (4 scored, 10 conceded).
FSV Mainz 05 have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 (10 scored, 12 conceded).
Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 86%.
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsSV Elversberg
LLWLD
- 27 Oct · H v SV Darmstadt 98 0–2 (xG 1.69–0.54)
- 24 Oct · A v RB Leipzig 0–4 (xG 0.68–2.91)
- 17 Oct · H v FC Augsburg 4–3 (xG 3.69–3.51)
- 10 Oct · A v Union Berlin 0–1 (xG 0.24–1.13)
- 20 Sep · A v FC Schalke 04 0–0 (xG 1.01–1.01)
FSV Mainz 05
LLWLW
- 27 Oct · A v VfL Bochum 0–2 (xG 0.52–1.44)
- 24 Oct · H v Werder Bremen 2–3 (xG 1.73–2.58)
- 17 Oct · A v FC Schalke 04 1–0 (xG 1.53–0.33)
- 10 Oct · H v Bayer Leverkusen 3–4 (xG 2.87–1.69)
- 19 Sep · A v Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–3 (xG 2.82–3.24)
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.