Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction
Fri 30 Oct, 20:15
Bets on this match
Best expected value first, at the best price we found-
Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goalsBankerUs 66%Books 62% Beats the odds Best odds 1.57 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
11%
Bookmakers 8%
Draw
19%
Bookmakers 16%
Away win
71%
Bookmakers 76%
Us 71%Bookmakers 76%
Odds too short
Uncertainty ±1.9%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: no profit at the best price (-6.2% expected per unit).
- Away win: 71% against a market price of 76% (-5.1%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Casa Pia vs Sporting CP preview
Casa Pia host Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga on Friday 30 October at 20:15.
Our model gives Casa Pia 11%, the draw 19% and Sporting CP 71%; the bookmakers' prices said 8%, 16% and 76%.
Casa Pia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (6 scored, 6 conceded).
Sporting CP have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 (10 scored, 8 conceded).
In their last 4 meetings Casa Pia won 0, Sporting CP won 4 and 0 were drawn, with 2.8 goals a game.
Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 66%.
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsCasa Pia
WWLWL
- 24 Oct · A v Estrela 2–0 (xG 0.81–1.72)
- 18 Oct · A v Alpendorada 1–0
- 10 Oct · H v Santa Clara 0–1 (xG 0.43–0.61)
- 20 Sep · A v Estoril 2–1 (xG 2.17–0.95)
- 12 Sep · H v FC Porto 1–4 (xG 1.59–2.60)
Sporting CP
LLWWD
- 25 Oct · H v Academico Viseu 1–2 (xG 2.06–0.86)
- 21 Oct · H v Lask Linz 2–3 (xG 3.28–1.14)
- 13 Oct · A v Lens 2–0 (xG 1.67–1.72)
- 9 Oct · A v SC Braga 3–1 (xG 0.95–1.50)
- 19 Sep · H v Arouca 2–2 (xG 1.28–2.08)
Head-to-head
Casa Pia 0 · draws 0 · Sporting CP 4, 2.8 goals a game
- 16 Jan 2026 · Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 8 Aug 2025 · Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 9 Mar 2025 · Casa Pia 1–3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 5 Oct 2024 · Sporting CP 2–0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)