Arsenal W vs Aston Villa W prediction

12:00

Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 Emirates Stadium

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 92%Books 92% Best odds 1.05 (Bet365)

Most likely: Home win

Home win

87%

Bookmakers 88%

Draw

Bookmakers 8%

Away win

Bookmakers 4%

Us 87%Bookmakers 88% Fair price Uncertainty ±0.8%

Most likely home win, and the bookmakers agree: no edge on the price, but a likely leg for a slip.

Home win: 87% against a market price of 88% (-0.6%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick

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Arsenal W vs Aston Villa W preview

Arsenal W host Aston Villa W in the FA WSL on Sunday 1 November at 12:00 at Emirates Stadium.

Our model gives Arsenal W 87%, the draw 8% and Aston Villa W 4%; the bookmakers' prices said 88%, 8% and 4%.

Arsenal W have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (10 scored, 8 conceded).

Aston Villa W have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (7 scored, 9 conceded).

In their last 4 meetings Arsenal W won 2, Aston Villa W won 1 and 1 was drawn, with 4.0 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 92%.

More FA WSL predictions

All FA WSL matches

Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 London City Lionesses W vs Manchester City W Manchester City W win 44% @ 2.30
Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 Birmingham City W vs Tottenham Hotspur W Tottenham Hotspur W win 50% @ 1.91
Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 West Ham W vs Liverpool W Liverpool W win 46% @ 2.05
Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 Brighton W vs Crystal Palace W Brighton W win 77% @ 1.26
Sun 1 Nov, 14:30 Charlton Athletic W vs Chelsea W Chelsea W win 91% @ 1.07

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Arsenal W

WWDLD

28 Oct · H v SL Benfica W 3–0 (xG 3.01–0.31)
24 Oct · A v Tottenham Hotspur W 2–1 (xG 2.30–0.38)
17 Oct · H v Birmingham City W 1–1 (xG 2.79–0.83)
4 Oct · A v Manchester City W 2–4
30 Sep · A v Paris FC W 2–2

Aston Villa W