Sportivo Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion prediction

22:30

Sat 31 Oct, 22:30

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goals

Us 76%Books 75% Best odds 1.30 (Pinnacle)

Match result: no bet

Home win

23%

Bookmakers 24%

Draw

27%

Bookmakers 26%

Away win

50%

Bookmakers 50%

Us 50%Bookmakers 50% Fair price Uncertainty ±2.4%

Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 50% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.1% alone is not enough).

Away win: 50% against a market price of 50% (+0.1%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Sportivo Luqueno vs Nacional Asuncion preview

Sportivo Luqueno host Nacional Asuncion in the Division Profesional - Clausura on Saturday 31 October at 22:30.

Our model gives Sportivo Luqueno 23%, the draw 27% and Nacional Asuncion 50%; the bookmakers' prices said 24%, 26% and 50%.

Sportivo Luqueno have 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 (5 scored, 10 conceded).

Nacional Asuncion have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (5 scored, 3 conceded).

In their last 5 meetings Sportivo Luqueno won 1, Nacional Asuncion won 2 and 2 were drawn, with 2.4 goals a game.

Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 76%.

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Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano win 38% @ 2.45
Sat 31 Oct, 22:30 Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion win 60% @ 1.50

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