Gremio vs Atletico-MG prediction
Sun 1 Nov, 21:30
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goalsUs 81%Books 81% Best odds 1.23 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
36%
Bookmakers 36%
Draw
31%
Bookmakers 30%
Away win
34%
Bookmakers 33%
Us 36%Bookmakers 36%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±1.6%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 36% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 36% against a market price of 36% (-0.7%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Gremio vs Atletico-MG preview
Gremio host Atletico-MG in the Copa Do Brasil on Sunday 1 November at 21:30.
Our model gives Gremio 36%, the draw 31% and Atletico-MG 34%; the bookmakers' prices said 36%, 30% and 33%.
Gremio have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (5 scored, 6 conceded).
Atletico-MG have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (8 scored, 6 conceded).
In their last 6 meetings Gremio won 3, Atletico-MG won 3 and 0 were drawn, with 3.5 goals a game.
Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 81%.
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsGremio
WLDDD
- 26 Oct · A v Coritiba 1–0 (xG 1.87–1.21)
- 18 Oct · H v Cruzeiro 2–4 (xG 2.07–1.54)
- 11 Oct · H v Internacional 1–1 (xG 1.44–0.78)
- 7 Oct · A v Remo 1–1 (xG 2.61–1.32)
- 20 Sep · H v Palmeiras 0–0 (xG 0.97–2.49)
Atletico-MG
LLWWW
- 26 Oct · A v Flamengo 2–3 (xG 1.01–2.94)
- 21 Oct · A v Atletico Torque 0–2 (xG 0.61–3.58)
- 17 Oct · H v Coritiba 1–0 (xG 1.39–0.69)
- 14 Oct · H v Atletico Torque 3–0 (xG 2.16–0.31)
- 11 Oct · H v Santos 2–1 (xG 1.44–1.12)
Head-to-head
Gremio 3 · draws 0 · Atletico-MG 3, 3.5 goals a game
- 16 Aug 2026 · Atletico-MG 3–0 Gremio (Serie A)
- 26 Feb 2026 · Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 17 Aug 2025 · Atletico-MG 1–3 Gremio (Serie A)
- 29 Mar 2025 · Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 9 Oct 2024 · Atletico-MG 2–1 Gremio (Serie A)
- 1 Sep 2024 · Gremio 2–3 Atletico-MG (Serie A)