Who scores more than their chances suggest: goals against xG
Published 27 Oct 2026 · figures live, updated 28 Oct, 01:56 · 2 min read
Goals against expected goals (xG) for every team we track: who is finishing above or below their chances, updated live.
Expected goals (xG) measure the chances a team creates: each shot gets a value for how often a shot like it is scored. Over a few weeks, goals and xG can drift far apart: a striker on a hot streak, a goalkeeper having a season. Over a longer run they tend to come back together. This page shows who is scoring more, or fewer, goals than their chances are worth, and updates itself as matches are played.
| Team | Games | Goals | xG | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 13 | 3.23 | 1.82 | +1.41 |
| Bursaspor | 5 | 3.00 | 1.82 | +1.18 |
| Jong AZ | 11 | 2.64 | 1.50 | +1.14 |
| VVV Venlo | 11 | 2.91 | 1.78 | +1.13 |
| Port FC | 6 | 1.83 | 0.77 | +1.06 |
| KVC Westerlo | 9 | 2.67 | 1.66 | +1.01 |
| 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 2.22 | 1.31 | +0.91 |
| BSC Young Boys | 11 | 3.18 | 2.32 | +0.87 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 11 | 2.91 | 2.05 | +0.86 |
| HJK Helsinki | 5 | 3.40 | 2.55 | +0.85 |
| Pyramids FC | 7 | 2.43 | 1.58 | +0.84 |
| Batman Petrolspor | 5 | 3.00 | 2.18 | +0.82 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 1.70 | 0.89 | +0.81 |
| Rapid Vienna | 10 | 3.10 | 2.34 | +0.76 |
| AC Oulu | 6 | 2.17 | 1.40 | +0.76 |
| Orlando Pirates | 8 | 2.38 | 1.62 | +0.75 |
| Heracles | 11 | 3.09 | 2.37 | +0.72 |
| Lazio | 9 | 2.44 | 1.73 | +0.72 |
| Groningen | 10 | 2.40 | 1.70 | +0.70 |
| Barcelona | 13 | 3.92 | 3.23 | +0.69 |
How to read this
- Expected goals (xG) is the number of goals the team's chances are worth on average.
- Scoring well above xG for a long time is rare: it usually fades. Our model leans on xG for that reason.
How to read it
"Goals" and "xG" are per game. The difference is goals minus xG: a positive number means a team is scoring more than its chances suggest, a negative one fewer. Only matches with expected goals stored count.
Where the numbers come from
Expected goals come with the statistics of finished matches and are averaged per game over the last six months, in every competition we store for a team. Penalties and own goals make goals and xG differ a little even for a team that is finishing exactly as expected, so small differences mean nothing.
Why we lean on xG
A team scoring far above its xG is often enjoying finishing that rarely lasts; a team far below is often better than its results. That is why our model reads expected goals for and against, not just results, when it rates a team. It is also why our picks sometimes go against the form table: a side that has won three in a row on scrappy goals can still look weaker in the numbers than its opponent.
Here are the teams furthest below their chances, the ones results may be underselling:
| Team | Games | Goals | xG | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radnicki 1923 | 6 | 0.33 | 1.38 | -1.05 |
| Arges Pitesti | 8 | 0.50 | 1.52 | -1.02 |
| Nottingham Forest | 9 | 0.67 | 1.65 | -0.99 |
| Guabirá | 5 | 1.40 | 2.36 | -0.96 |
| AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 0.86 | 1.81 | -0.95 |
| Kalmar FF | 15 | 0.53 | 1.48 | -0.95 |
| Sunderland | 11 | 0.91 | 1.75 | -0.84 |
| Venezia | 7 | 0.86 | 1.66 | -0.80 |
| Aurora | 5 | 1.00 | 1.78 | -0.78 |
| Leganes | 8 | 0.38 | 1.16 | -0.78 |
How to read this
- Expected goals (xG) is the number of goals the team's chances are worth on average.
- Scoring well above xG for a long time is rare: it usually fades. Our model leans on xG for that reason.
None of this is a pick on its own: our match pages combine xG with form, ratings, head-to-head and team news, and say how much each moved the number. Today's football predictions are on the home page.
18+ · Predictions are chances, not promises: even a 70% pick loses three times in ten. Only stake what you can afford to lose. Play safe.