Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #1115: pick published

Hash verified

Cruz Azul v FC Juarez: Home win 73% @ 1.27 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T03:00:14.055496+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: a1a82a7bcd3013614465699c0345eaf388579df93f3429fd98f63613bd7f18c3
Stored hash: 673cedeef0be0af5739a0dc2bcec614fcf5f5ab5501e8702ae37ffee8dda4ede
Recomputed: 673cedeef0be0af5739a0dc2bcec614fcf5f5ab5501e8702ae37ffee8dda4ede

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC Juarez",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0215,
  "explanation": "Home win: 73% against a market price of 76% (-2.2%).\nExpected goals Cruz Azul 2.31 – 1.02 FC Juarez.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 65% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) adds 2.8 pts to home win.\nCruz Azul's attack (1.17× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nFC Juarez's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nCruz Azul missing 4.2 regular starters; FC Juarez missing 3.7 regular starters adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.2%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 71% → 73% (+2.1 pts); Draw 18% → 17% (-1.0 pts); Away win 11% → 10% (-1.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 75% → 76%.",
  "fixture": 1551000,
  "home": "Cruz Azul",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T03:10:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7554,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.27",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.7338,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 71% → 73% (+2.1 pts); Draw 18% → 17% (-1.0 pts); Away win 11% → 10% (-1.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 75% → 76%."
}

#1114 #1116

Latest entries

1151 in total