Check any pick we ever made

{
  "combined_odds": "34.42",
  "combined_probability": 0.042608,
  "ev": 0.4664,
  "explanation": "Long shot slip for Sun 18 Oct 2026: 3 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 34.42. By our numbers the fair price is 23.47, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 4.26% (about 1 in 23; likely range 3.86%–4.70%). The market's own prices imply 2.26%.\nChance that at least 2 of the 3 legs win: 29.7%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +47% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be +22%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 4.0 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.17 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC: Draw @ 4.78 — our 24% vs the market's 19% (+5.5%), EV +16%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.5% too long by the market.\n2. FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 — our 50% vs the market's 41% (+9.0%), EV +13%. Value: our 50% beats the market's 41%.\n3. Remo v RB Bragantino: Home win @ 3.20 — our 35% vs the market's 29% (+5.7%), EV +12%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.7% too long by the market.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Value/Upset Watch whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 3% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise a balance of chance and expected value.\nHonest note: a 3-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 23; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v1:\nRemoved: Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC Under 2.5 goals — replaced by a stronger leg.\nRemoved: Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC Under 2.5 goals — replaced by a stronger leg.\nRemoved: FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC Away win — replaced by a stronger leg.\nAdded: Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC Draw @ 4.78 (Upset Watch).\nAdded: FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 (Value).\nAdded: Remo v RB Bragantino Home win @ 3.20 (Upset Watch).\nCombined odds 24.46 → 34.42; chance 6.47% → 4.26%; EV +58% → +47%.",
  "fair_odds": "23.47",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1507084,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T05:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "K League 1",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.1875,
      "match": "Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC",
      "odds": "4.78",
      "probability": 0.2422,
      "selection": "draw",
      "tag": "upset"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1507082,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "K League 1",
      "market": "OU25",
      "market_probability": 0.4117,
      "match": "FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC",
      "odds": "2.25",
      "probability": 0.5018,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "value"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1492418,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T22:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "Serie A",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.2934,
      "match": "Remo v RB Bragantino",
      "odds": "3.20",
      "probability": 0.3505,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "upset"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 883,
  "slate": "2026-10-18",
  "slip": 35,
  "stake_units": 0.17,
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "longshot",
  "variant_name": "Long shot",
  "version": 2,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nRemoved: Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC Under 2.5 goals — replaced by a stronger leg.\nRemoved: Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC Under 2.5 goals — replaced by a stronger leg.\nRemoved: FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC Away win — replaced by a stronger leg.\nAdded: Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC Draw @ 4.78 (Upset Watch).\nAdded: FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 (Value).\nAdded: Remo v RB Bragantino Home win @ 3.20 (Upset Watch).\nCombined odds 24.46 → 34.42; chance 6.47% → 4.26%; EV +58% → +47%."
}