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Entry #1156: pick published

Hash verified

Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC: Away win 30% @ 3.74 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:41:04.894595+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 8e306976b24db7ffb285be247306f44bac9b81d230b6142b084be1bd1e3ce4fe
Stored hash: 264def7a6fa5693b6576752107d38930fdc12b45c47bb832c75e49fa8070460e
Recomputed: 264def7a6fa5693b6576752107d38930fdc12b45c47bb832c75e49fa8070460e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Jeju United FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0593,
  "explanation": "Away win: 30% against a market price of 24% (+5.9%).\nExpected goals Jeonbuk Motors 1.21 – 1.26 Jeju United FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±4.5%), so it carries 50% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nJeonbuk Motors missing 2.7 regular starters; Jeju United FC missing 3.8 regular starters adds 2.1 pts to away win.\nRest days (Jeonbuk Motors 4, Jeju United FC 8) adds 1.8 pts to away win.\nJeonbuk Motors's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nJeju United FC's attack (0.95× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.9% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Jeonbuk Motors 4-3-3, Jeju United FC 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 44% → 42% (-1.9 pts); Draw 29% → 28% (-1.3 pts); Away win 27% → 30% (+3.3 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1507085,
  "home": "Jeonbuk Motors",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2431,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "3.74",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3024,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 5.9% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Jeonbuk Motors 4-3-3, Jeju United FC 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 44% → 42% (-1.9 pts); Draw 29% → 28% (-1.3 pts); Away win 27% → 30% (+3.3 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}

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