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Entry #1155: pick published

Hash verified

Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC: Away win 15% @ 6.96 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:41:04.719527+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 044e803e0053447dab56b50b3f49d8a6cb22aa290120858b04edd444194c9b8e
Stored hash: 8e306976b24db7ffb285be247306f44bac9b81d230b6142b084be1bd1e3ce4fe
Recomputed: 8e306976b24db7ffb285be247306f44bac9b81d230b6142b084be1bd1e3ce4fe

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gwangju FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0305,
  "explanation": "Away win: 15% against a market price of 12% (+3.0%).\nExpected goals Daejeon Citizen 1.66 – 1.05 Gwangju FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 23% (uncertainty ±4.8%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nGwangju FC's defence (1.13× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nGwangju FC's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nRest days (Daejeon Citizen 5, Gwangju FC 7) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nDaejeon Citizen's attack (1.10× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.0% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Daejeon Citizen 4-2-3-1, Gwangju FC 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 59% → 63% (+4.7 pts); Draw 24% → 21% (-3.0 pts); Away win 17% → 15% (-1.7 pts).\nPick changed from Draw to Away win.",
  "fixture": 1507084,
  "home": "Daejeon Citizen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1235,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "6.96",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.1539,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.0% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Daejeon Citizen 4-2-3-1, Gwangju FC 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 59% → 63% (+4.7 pts); Draw 24% → 21% (-3.0 pts); Away win 17% → 15% (-1.7 pts).\nPick changed from Draw to Away win."
}

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