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{
  "combined_odds": "2.96",
  "combined_probability": 0.351535,
  "ev": 0.0418,
  "explanation": "Safe slip for Sun 18 Oct 2026: 3 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 2.96. By our numbers the fair price is 2.84, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 35.15% (about 1 in 2.8; likely range 34.33%–35.99%). The market's own prices imply 28.29%.\nChance that at least 2 of the 3 legs win: 79.5%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +4% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be -4%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 1.0 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.27 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.30 — our 78% vs the market's 73% (+4.5%), EV +1%. Banker: 78% likely, uncertainty only ±0.9%, market agrees.\n2. FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.49 — our 69% vs the market's 63% (+5.6%), EV +3%. Banker: 69% likely, uncertainty only ±0.9%, market agrees.\n3. Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.53 — our 66% vs the market's 61% (+4.6%), EV +1%. Banker: 66% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Banker/Value whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 1% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise the chance of landing.\nHonest note: a 3-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 2.8; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v1:\nRemoved: Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC Under 3.5 goals — replaced by a stronger leg.\nAdded: Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC Under 3.5 goals @ 1.53 (Banker).\nCombined odds 2.92 → 2.96; chance 36.22% → 35.15%; EV +6% → +4%.",
  "fair_odds": "2.84",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1507085,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T05:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "K League 1",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.7298,
      "match": "Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC",
      "odds": "1.30",
      "probability": 0.7752,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "banker"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1507082,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "K League 1",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.6323,
      "match": "FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC",
      "odds": "1.49",
      "probability": 0.6883,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "banker"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1560256,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "NB I",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.6131,
      "match": "Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC",
      "odds": "1.53",
      "probability": 0.6589,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "banker"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 881,
  "slate": "2026-10-18",
  "slip": 33,
  "stake_units": 0.27,
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "safe",
  "variant_name": "Safe",
  "version": 2,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nRemoved: Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC Under 3.5 goals — replaced by a stronger leg.\nAdded: Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC Under 3.5 goals @ 1.53 (Banker).\nCombined odds 2.92 → 2.96; chance 36.22% → 35.15%; EV +6% → +4%."
}