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Entry #1160: pick published

Hash verified

Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe: Away win 40% @ 2.62 (Value)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:41:08.788682+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ba431abd1b45c4693a248d7ccdb3ec8402e98327a7890263dba22cd956d6730d
Stored hash: 347d72afb64e73c67bce2d3c8453c3860ba4906c949517b27fb7e068880bca22
Recomputed: 347d72afb64e73c67bce2d3c8453c3860ba4906c949517b27fb7e068880bca22

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Vissel Kobe",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.038,
  "explanation": "Away win: 40% against a market price of 36% (+3.8%).\nExpected goals Fagiano Okayama 1.13 – 1.44 Vissel Kobe.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 45% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Fagiano Okayama 8, Vissel Kobe 4) adds 2.0 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+14% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nVissel Kobe's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nVissel Kobe's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nTagged Value: our 40% beats the market's 36%.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Vissel Kobe 4-3-3, Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 33% (+2.5 pts); Away win 42% → 40% (-2.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 34% → 35%; Away win 37% → 36%.",
  "fixture": 1556097,
  "home": "Fagiano Okayama",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T04:55:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3597,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.62",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3977,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 40% beats the market's 36%",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Vissel Kobe 4-3-3, Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 33% (+2.5 pts); Away win 42% → 40% (-2.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 34% → 35%; Away win 37% → 36%."
}

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