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{
  "combined_odds": "87.03",
  "combined_probability": 0.018481,
  "ev": 0.6085,
  "explanation": "Long shot slip for Sun 18 Oct 2026: 3 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 87.03. By our numbers the fair price is 54.11, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 1.85% (about 1 in 54; likely range 1.62%–2.10%). The market's own prices imply 0.86%.\nChance that at least 2 of the 3 legs win: 17.7%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +61% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be +26%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 3.8 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.09 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC: Draw @ 4.78 — our 24% vs the market's 19% (+5.5%), EV +16%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.5% too long by the market.\n2. FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Away win @ 5.69 — our 22% vs the market's 16% (+6.1%), EV +24%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 6.1% too long by the market.\n3. Remo v RB Bragantino: Home win @ 3.20 — our 35% vs the market's 29% (+5.7%), EV +12%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.7% too long by the market.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Value/Upset Watch whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 3% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise a balance of chance and expected value.\nHonest note: a 3-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 54; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v2:\nRemoved: FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC Under 2.5 goals — replaced by a stronger leg.\nAdded: FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC Away win @ 5.69 (Upset Watch).\nCombined odds 34.42 → 87.03; chance 4.26% → 1.85%; EV +47% → +61%.",
  "fair_odds": "54.11",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1507084,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T05:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "K League 1",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.1875,
      "match": "Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC",
      "odds": "4.78",
      "probability": 0.2422,
      "selection": "draw",
      "tag": "upset"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1507082,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "K League 1",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.1569,
      "match": "FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC",
      "odds": "5.69",
      "probability": 0.2176,
      "selection": "away",
      "tag": "upset"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1492418,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T22:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "Serie A",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.2934,
      "match": "Remo v RB Bragantino",
      "odds": "3.20",
      "probability": 0.3505,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "upset"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 1151,
  "slate": "2026-10-18",
  "slip": 36,
  "stake_units": 0.09,
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "longshot",
  "variant_name": "Long shot",
  "version": 3,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nRemoved: FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC Under 2.5 goals — replaced by a stronger leg.\nAdded: FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC Away win @ 5.69 (Upset Watch).\nCombined odds 34.42 → 87.03; chance 4.26% → 1.85%; EV +47% → +61%."
}