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Entry #1161: pick published

Hash verified

Ska-khabarovsk v Volga Ulyanovsk: Home win 38% @ 2.36 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T04:41:08.846539+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 347d72afb64e73c67bce2d3c8453c3860ba4906c949517b27fb7e068880bca22
Stored hash: ab9fe0db07ba7a4720b811207f2949f991a0bc62fbca18acdf6bb950fc041680
Recomputed: ab9fe0db07ba7a4720b811207f2949f991a0bc62fbca18acdf6bb950fc041680

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Volga Ulyanovsk",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0191,
  "explanation": "Home win: 38% against a market price of 40% (-1.9%).\nExpected goals Ska-khabarovsk 1.26 – 1.30 Volga Ulyanovsk.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nSka-khabarovsk missing 4.8 regular starters; Volga Ulyanovsk missing 2.4 regular starters takes 1.7 pts from home win.\nSka-khabarovsk's defence (1.15× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nVolga Ulyanovsk's defence (1.08× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Volga Ulyanovsk, Ska-khabarovsk.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 38% (-1.7 pts); Draw 29% → 28% (-0.7 pts); Away win 31% → 34% (+2.4 pts).",
  "fixture": 1577551,
  "home": "Ska-khabarovsk",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4034,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.36",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3843,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Volga Ulyanovsk, Ska-khabarovsk.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 38% (-1.7 pts); Draw 29% → 28% (-0.7 pts); Away win 31% → 34% (+2.4 pts)."
}

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