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Entry #1200: pick published

Hash verified

Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka: Home win 52% @ 1.78 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T07:30:02.989465+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 89268eb72c7edf4f56e30322e82ae4f846b89d51b8d1a70031c10f2e456d43ee
Stored hash: 88897768205775eaa1fa47855baf7f8acc33595c09fc25b8af95b59fc33e6eba
Recomputed: 88897768205775eaa1fa47855baf7f8acc33595c09fc25b8af95b59fc33e6eba

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Avispa Fukuoka",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0125,
  "explanation": "Home win: 52% against a market price of 54% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals Machida Zelvia 1.41 – 0.91 Avispa Fukuoka.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+14% goals at home) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nMachida Zelvia's attack (1.13× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nAvispa Fukuoka's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nMachida Zelvia's defence (0.90× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 52% (+1.8 pts); Away win 23% → 21% (-1.7 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 51% → 54%; Away win 22% → 19%.",
  "fixture": 1556095,
  "home": "Machida Zelvia",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5369,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.78",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5244,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 52% (+1.8 pts); Away win 23% → 21% (-1.7 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 51% → 54%; Away win 22% → 19%."
}

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