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Entry #1198: pick published

Hash verified

FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Away win 17% @ 7.78 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T07:23:51.076594+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 3236e909967a650c0705f240a0718f0e67f5135e5c9565c3af2fb56ce256399d
Stored hash: 40d3a2536591bcff5ae87a8354acbb96cb59aa6b3f8c17446eb835907201c116
Recomputed: 40d3a2536591bcff5ae87a8354acbb96cb59aa6b3f8c17446eb835907201c116

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gimcheon Sangmu FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0609,
  "explanation": "Away win: 17% against a market price of 11% (+6.1%).\nExpected goals FC Seoul 1.16 – 1.08 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±5.6%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (FC Seoul 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 8) adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nFC Seoul's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from away win.\nFC Seoul's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.6 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 6.1% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 64% → 71%, draw 21% → 18%, away 15% → 11%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 54% → 60% (+5.8 pts); Draw 25% → 23% (-2.0 pts); Away win 21% → 17% (-3.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 64% → 71%; Draw 21% → 18%; Away win 15% → 11%.",
  "fixture": 1507082,
  "home": "FC Seoul",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1083,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "7.78",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.1692,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 6.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 64% → 71%, draw 21% → 18%, away 15% → 11%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 54% → 60% (+5.8 pts); Draw 25% → 23% (-2.0 pts); Away win 21% → 17% (-3.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 64% → 71%; Draw 21% → 18%; Away win 15% → 11%."
}

#1197 #1199

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