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{
  "away": "FC Anyang",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0467,
  "explanation": "Away win: 31% against a market price of 26% (+4.7%).\nExpected goals Pohang Steelers 1.17 – 1.29 FC Anyang.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±5.1%), so it carries 41% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nPohang Steelers missing 3.4 regular starters; FC Anyang missing 4.2 regular starters adds 2.0 pts to away win.\nPohang Steelers's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nFC Anyang's defence (1.05× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.7% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Pohang Steelers 4-4-2, FC Anyang 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Draw 30% → 28% (-1.7 pts); Away win 30% → 31% (+1.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 48% → 47%; Away win 26% → 26%.",
  "fixture": 1507087,
  "home": "Pohang Steelers",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2629,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "3.49",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3096,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.7% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Pohang Steelers 4-4-2, FC Anyang 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Draw 30% → 28% (-1.7 pts); Away win 30% → 31% (+1.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 48% → 47%; Away win 26% → 26%."
}