Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #167: pick published

Hash verified

Obolon'-Brovar v Veres Rivne: Away win 40% @ 2.34 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T09:51:02.886340+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 0c48b2ec6776614e84ab764f4e7974afefb98c09842a9836e44dd0a82d31a032
Stored hash: 609a862a3a76415837f4cad644821d46861b6f6f064c515f66ca1320f148bcd6
Recomputed: 609a862a3a76415837f4cad644821d46861b6f6f064c515f66ca1320f148bcd6

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Veres Rivne",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": 0.0089,
  "explanation": "Away win: 40% against a market price of 39% (+0.9%).\nExpected goals Obolon'-Brovar 0.75 – 1.18 Veres Rivne.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±9.7%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nObolon'-Brovar's defence (1.33× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to away win.\nVeres Rivne's attack (0.80× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nObolon'-Brovar's attack (0.75× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nObolon'-Brovar missing 5.1 regular starters; Veres Rivne missing 1.6 regular starters adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.9%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Obolon'-Brovar 4-4-2, Veres Rivne 4-2-2-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 29% (-1.2 pts); Away win 39% → 40% (+1.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1565502,
  "home": "Obolon'-Brovar",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 333,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3946,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-333-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.34",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4035,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Obolon'-Brovar 4-4-2, Veres Rivne 4-2-2-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 29% (-1.2 pts); Away win 39% → 40% (+1.2 pts)."
}

#166 #168

Latest entries

174 in total