Check any pick we ever made

{
  "combined_odds": "4.79",
  "combined_probability": 0.21443,
  "ev": 0.0265,
  "explanation": "Balanced slip for Fri 16 Oct 2026: 3 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 4.79. By our numbers the fair price is 4.66, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 21.44% (about 1 in 4.7; likely range 20.58%–22.34%). The market's own prices imply 17.21%.\nChance that at least 2 of the 3 legs win: 64.9%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +3% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be -7%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 0.5 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.09 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda: Both teams score @ 1.74 — our 58% vs the market's 53% (+4.1%), EV +0%. Value: our 58% beats the market's 53%.\n2. Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart II: Under 10.5 corners @ 1.52 — our 67% vs the market's 62% (+5.1%), EV +2%. Banker: 67% likely, uncertainty only ±1.3%, market agrees.\n3. Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.81 — our 56% vs the market's 52% (+3.7%), EV +1%. Value: our 56% beats the market's 52%.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Banker/Value/Upset Watch whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 2% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise a balance of chance and expected value.\nHonest note: a 3-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 4.7; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v2:\nCombined odds 4.95 → 4.79; chance 20.94% → 21.44%; EV +4% → +3%.",
  "fair_odds": "4.66",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1523275,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-16T11:35:00+00:00",
      "league": "Super League",
      "market": "BTTS",
      "market_probability": 0.5348,
      "match": "Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda",
      "odds": "1.74",
      "probability": 0.5757,
      "selection": "yes",
      "tag": "value"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1584037,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-16T17:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "3. Liga",
      "market": "COR10.5",
      "market_probability": 0.6189,
      "match": "Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart II",
      "odds": "1.52",
      "probability": 0.6694,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "banker"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1561945,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-16T17:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "Bundesliga",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.5198,
      "match": "Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg",
      "odds": "1.81",
      "probability": 0.5565,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "value"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 142,
  "slate": "2026-10-16",
  "slip": 10,
  "stake_units": 0.09,
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "balanced",
  "variant_name": "Balanced",
  "version": 3,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nCombined odds 4.95 → 4.79; chance 20.94% → 21.44%; EV +4% → +3%."
}