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Entry #19: pick published

Hash verified

Rīgas FS v Super Nova: Home win 85% @ 1.10 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:14:43.530569+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: d312f4f6a9a43fbf90a85d3cc9f40f34cf41f647d912a29e4ba649e9f528bc87
Stored hash: a35a5e95d86d3977bdf4a02bc19743f6265f9cb0c09ff79dd9e289b0d0f51114
Recomputed: a35a5e95d86d3977bdf4a02bc19743f6265f9cb0c09ff79dd9e289b0d0f51114

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Super Nova",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": -0.0127,
  "explanation": "Home win: 85% against a market price of 87% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals Rīgas FS 2.40 – 0.67 Super Nova.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 74% (uncertainty ±7.6%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRīgas FS's attack (1.65× the league rate) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nRīgas FS's defence (0.73× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nSuper Nova's attack (0.76× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1515897,
  "home": "Rīgas FS",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Virsliga",
  "league_api_id": 365,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.8656,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-365-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.10",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.8529,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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