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{
  "away": "Internacional",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": 0.0284,
  "explanation": "Home win: 48% against a market price of 45% (+2.8%).\nExpected goals Mirassol 1.71 – 0.89 Internacional.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±7.8%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+42% goals at home) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nMirassol missing 1.0 regular starters; Internacional missing 3.1 regular starters: Alan Patrick, G. Maripan adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nInternacional's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nMirassol's attack (1.03× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.8%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Internacional 3-4-2-1, Mirassol 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 47% → 48% (+0.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 44% → 45%; Draw 28% → 27%; Away win 29% → 28%.\nTag changed from Value to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1492417,
  "home": "Mirassol",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T23:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 71,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4488,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-71-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.13",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.4772,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.8%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Internacional 3-4-2-1, Mirassol 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 47% → 48% (+0.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 44% → 45%; Draw 28% → 27%; Away win 29% → 28%.\nTag changed from Value to Avoid."
}