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{
  "away": "Internacional",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": 0.0349,
  "explanation": "Home win: 47% against a market price of 44% (+3.5%).\nExpected goals Mirassol 1.77 – 0.88 Internacional.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 58% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+42% goals at home) adds 3.4 pts to home win.\nInternacional missing 1.7 regular starters: Alan Patrick, G. Maripan adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nInternacional's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nMirassol's attack (1.03× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Value: our 47% beats the market's 44%.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Jose Aldo (Mirassol) no longer listed as missing; Alan Patrick (Internacional) ruled out: Muscle Injury; Anthoni (Internacional) ruled out: Knee Injury; Allex (Internacional) no longer listed as missing; A. Sanabria (Internacional) no longer listed as missing.\nOur probabilities: Home win 45% → 47% (+2.3 pts); Draw 27% → 27% (-0.5 pts); Away win 28% → 26% (-1.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 42% → 44%; Away win 30% → 29%.\nTag changed from Avoid to Value.",
  "fixture": 1492417,
  "home": "Mirassol",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T23:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 71,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4366,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-71-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.19",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4716,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 47% beats the market's 44%",
  "trigger": "event: player back, injury",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Jose Aldo (Mirassol) no longer listed as missing; Alan Patrick (Internacional) ruled out: Muscle Injury; Anthoni (Internacional) ruled out: Knee Injury; Allex (Internacional) no longer listed as missing; A. Sanabria (Internacional) no longer listed as missing.\nOur probabilities: Home win 45% → 47% (+2.3 pts); Draw 27% → 27% (-0.5 pts); Away win 28% → 26% (-1.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 42% → 44%; Away win 30% → 29%.\nTag changed from Avoid to Value."
}