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{
  "away": "Wolves",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0324,
  "explanation": "Away win: 39% against a market price of 43% (-3.2%).\nExpected goals Burnley 1.44 – 1.22 Wolves.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nBurnley missing 3.9 regular starters: A. Ahmedhodzic, A. Ramsey; Wolves missing 3.4 regular starters: A. Armstrong, R. Jimenez adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nWolves's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nBurnley's attack (1.08× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.2%).\nWhat changed since v4:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Wolves 4-2-3-1, Burnley 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 34% (-1.6 pts); Away win 38% → 39% (+1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Away win 42% → 43%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1563205,
  "home": "Burnley",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Championship",
  "league_api_id": 40,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4264,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-40-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.23",
  "prediction_version": 5,
  "probability": 0.394,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v4:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Wolves 4-2-3-1, Burnley 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 34% (-1.6 pts); Away win 38% → 39% (+1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Away win 42% → 43%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}