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Entry #246: pick published

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Club Deportivo Los Chankas v ADT: Home win 44% @ 2.21 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T20:11:05.126504+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 7c47b80ce7f6047e54f0303396ee94d5e90a1b69c3c309e0d8b59c58abbf23ca
Stored hash: f6ce84fb397c34121247b44fab9ad94c8edd6ced3d9e8354c3c89991643b6856
Recomputed: f6ce84fb397c34121247b44fab9ad94c8edd6ced3d9e8354c3c89991643b6856

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "ADT",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0202,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 42% (+2.0%).\nExpected goals Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1.65 – 1.04 ADT.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+52% goals at home) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nClub Deportivo Los Chankas missing 1.7 regular starters; ADT missing 2.7 regular starters adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nRest days (Club Deportivo Los Chankas 8, ADT 6) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nADT's attack (0.90× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.0%).\nWhat changed since v4:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 4-4-2, ADT 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 43% → 44% (+0.9 pts); Away win 31% → 30% (-1.1 pts).",
  "fixture": 1549515,
  "home": "Club Deportivo Los Chankas",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T20:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 281,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4222,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-281-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.21",
  "prediction_version": 5,
  "probability": 0.4423,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v4:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 4-4-2, ADT 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 43% → 44% (+0.9 pts); Away win 31% → 30% (-1.1 pts)."
}

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