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Entry #231: pick published

Hash verified

ABB v Real Potosí: Home win 37% @ 2.56 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T18:51:02.883673+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2a108e7763fb1e1eeb0803c2f66e72a31bd19fb4c6709dfaed3b848021cc1c74
Stored hash: f8f0e000d9470d899903b1c69bf9f3b3bcede4645bb23e7e25794f07c21e688c
Recomputed: f8f0e000d9470d899903b1c69bf9f3b3bcede4645bb23e7e25794f07c21e688c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Real Potosí",
  "bookmakers": 8,
  "edge": 0.0095,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 36% (+0.9%).\nExpected goals ABB 1.44 – 1.15 Real Potosí.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±9.9%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nReal Potosí's defence (0.64× the league rate against) takes 3.3 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+59% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (ABB 6, Real Potosí 5) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nReal Potosí missing 3.6 regular starters adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.9%).\nWhat changed since v5:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Real Potosí, ABB 5-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 37% (+1.7 pts); Away win 39% → 36% (-2.2 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.",
  "fixture": 1619328,
  "home": "ABB",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 344,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3618,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-344-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.56",
  "prediction_version": 6,
  "probability": 0.3713,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v5:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Real Potosí, ABB 5-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 37% (+1.7 pts); Away win 39% → 36% (-2.2 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win."
}

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