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{
  "away": "Catanzaro",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0323,
  "explanation": "Home win: 53% against a market price of 56% (-3.2%).\nExpected goals Hellas Verona 1.52 – 1.40 Catanzaro.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±8.7%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+33% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nHellas Verona missing 2.9 regular starters; Catanzaro missing 0.9 regular starters takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nHellas Verona's attack (1.11× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nCatanzaro's attack (1.13× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.2%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 53% (+1.5 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.1 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 54% → 56%; Away win 21% → 20%.",
  "fixture": 1601562,
  "home": "Hellas Verona",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 136,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5598,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-136-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.71",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.5276,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 53% (+1.5 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.1 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 54% → 56%; Away win 21% → 20%."
}