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Entry #250: pick published

Hash verified

Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC: Home win 37% @ 2.59 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T23:21:02.992124+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b14079493628a62a255eae24738f2fa19088042d4b7814476fe38d7cabdab254
Stored hash: 137d197014f8b2f9edb79f1e5051553e70527c207c9b704fae1d9b074955aab6
Recomputed: 137d197014f8b2f9edb79f1e5051553e70527c207c9b704fae1d9b074955aab6

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Fortaleza EC",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0072,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 36% (+0.7%).\nExpected goals Sport Recife 1.02 – 0.90 Fortaleza EC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+36% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nSport Recife missing 3.1 regular starters; Fortaleza EC missing 5.0 regular starters takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nFortaleza EC's defence (0.88× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nSport Recife's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.7%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Fortaleza EC 4-3-3, Sport Recife 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 37% (-2.1 pts); Draw 28% → 29% (+0.9 pts); Away win 33% → 34% (+1.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1520938,
  "home": "Sport Recife",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T23:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 72,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3599,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-72-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.59",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3671,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Fortaleza EC 4-3-3, Sport Recife 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 37% (-2.1 pts); Draw 28% → 29% (+0.9 pts); Away win 33% → 34% (+1.2 pts)."
}

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