Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #251: pick published

Hash verified

Real Tomayapo v Gualberto Villarroel SJ: Home win 50% @ 1.81 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T23:41:02.319316+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 137d197014f8b2f9edb79f1e5051553e70527c207c9b704fae1d9b074955aab6
Stored hash: e91bd4647a62da0e8744cc8da7028bf08a5e8da24a628288b4bb67e1fca32335
Recomputed: e91bd4647a62da0e8744cc8da7028bf08a5e8da24a628288b4bb67e1fca32335

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gualberto Villarroel SJ",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0172,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 51% (-1.7%).\nExpected goals Real Tomayapo 1.65 – 1.23 Gualberto Villarroel SJ.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±7.8%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+59% goals at home) adds 4.3 pts to home win.\nReal Tomayapo's attack (0.76× the league rate) takes 3.1 pts from home win.\nGualberto Villarroel SJ's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nGualberto Villarroel SJ's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.7%).",
  "fixture": 1619329,
  "home": "Real Tomayapo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 344,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5137,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-344-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.81",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4965,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick"
}

#250 #252

Latest entries

502 in total