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Entry #252: pick published

Hash verified

Boca Juniors v Talleres Cordoba: Home win 60% @ 1.53 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:06.431126+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: e91bd4647a62da0e8744cc8da7028bf08a5e8da24a628288b4bb67e1fca32335
Stored hash: ac6d18ab0b6fb752d82f7e0c743e56b177e0b406ed50f20c18ae4203b185de24
Recomputed: ac6d18ab0b6fb752d82f7e0c743e56b177e0b406ed50f20c18ae4203b185de24

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Talleres Cordoba",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0277,
  "explanation": "Home win: 60% against a market price of 63% (-2.8%).\nExpected goals Boca Juniors 1.58 – 0.89 Talleres Cordoba.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nBoca Juniors's attack (1.22× the league rate) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nTalleres Cordoba's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nBoca Juniors's defence (0.92× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.8%).",
  "fixture": 1493185,
  "home": "Boca Juniors",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T00:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
  "league_api_id": 128,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6275,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-128-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.53",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5997,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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