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Entry #553: pick published

Hash verified

Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka: Home win 41% @ 2.27 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T03:45:30.356623+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 6221550f5b7b8ab9b0f79fa944319784a73d3bfe44461e66f671b6d7fb802bf9
Stored hash: 149a66445c4301d9905c1d3f06b74067805d03669203a22cd4ab4eb0303d2ba7
Recomputed: 149a66445c4301d9905c1d3f06b74067805d03669203a22cd4ab4eb0303d2ba7

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gamba Osaka",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0041,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 42% (-0.4%).\nExpected goals Shimizu S-pulse 1.37 – 1.27 Gamba Osaka.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nShimizu S-pulse's attack (0.88× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nShimizu S-pulse missing 1.2 regular starters; Gamba Osaka missing 2.1 regular starters adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nRest days (Shimizu S-pulse 6, Gamba Osaka 4) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.4%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Gamba Osaka 4-2-3-1, Shimizu S-pulse 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 41% (+3.8 pts); Away win 35% → 32% (-3.4 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1556099,
  "home": "Shimizu S-pulse",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T04:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4179,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.27",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4138,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Gamba Osaka 4-2-3-1, Shimizu S-pulse 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 41% (+3.8 pts); Away win 35% → 32% (-3.4 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

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