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{
  "away": "FC Tokyo",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0339,
  "explanation": "Home win: 21% against a market price of 18% (+3.4%).\nExpected goals Tokyo Verdy 1.01 – 1.29 FC Tokyo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 30% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nTokyo Verdy's attack (0.78× the league rate) takes 2.4 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nFC Tokyo's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nFC Tokyo's attack (1.06× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Tokyo 4-4-2, Tokyo Verdy 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 22% → 21% (-1.3 pts); Draw 28% → 26% (-1.9 pts); Away win 50% → 53% (+3.3 pts).",
  "fixture": 1556100,
  "home": "Tokyo Verdy",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1766,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "5.12",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.2105,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Tokyo 4-4-2, Tokyo Verdy 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 22% → 21% (-1.3 pts); Draw 28% → 26% (-1.9 pts); Away win 50% → 53% (+3.3 pts)."
}