Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "V-varen Nagasaki",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0269,
  "explanation": "Home win: 61% against a market price of 63% (-2.7%).\nExpected goals Kashima 1.52 – 0.84 V-varen Nagasaki.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nKashima's attack (1.16× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nKashima's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nV-varen Nagasaki's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.7%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Referee assigned: Hiroki Kasahara; Confirmed lineups released: Kashima 4-4-2, V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 63% → 61% (-1.7 pts); Draw 21% → 22% (+1.0 pts); Away win 16% → 17% (+0.8 pts).\nTag changed from Banker to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1556093,
  "home": "Kashima",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6349,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.51",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.608,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: referee, lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Referee assigned: Hiroki Kasahara; Confirmed lineups released: Kashima 4-4-2, V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 63% → 61% (-1.7 pts); Draw 21% → 22% (+1.0 pts); Away win 16% → 17% (+0.8 pts).\nTag changed from Banker to Avoid."
}